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By SBNATION
By Paul Noonan
The Case for Number One: Bo Melton
Bo Melton? (Checks notes.) Yes, Bo Melton.
The Green Bay Packers absolutely knocked it out of the park drafting and acquiring pass-catchers over the last two seasons, and as a result, they are now blessed with one of the deepest receiver rooms in football. While most teams have a clear number one receiver (Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, etc.), the Packers really don’t. For many teams, that would be a problem, more indicative of a lack of talent than anything. For the Packers, their cup runneth over, and almost any member of the receiving corps and even the tight ends could very well develop into a true number one. Maybe all of them will, who knows!
Today we cover the longshot of the group, but once you dig in, you might be surprised at what you find. Let’s talk about Bo Melton.
2023 Stats: 24 Targets, 16 Catches, 218 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 1 TD
You might think it’s insane to even bother with Bo Melton in this context. While it may be unclear who the Packers’ number one receiver is, what is pretty clear is that Melton is fifth. That said, don’t sleep on Bo, because the only real difference between the case for Wicks and the case of Melton is sample size, and in a few key areas, Melton may even have the advantage.
But first, let’s dispense with the obvious small sample size negatives. Whatever brilliant, advanced stats follow, the fact is that including playoffs, Bo Melton was only targeted 27 times in 2023, with all 27 targets coming after Week 9. Melton did not have to contend with any first-half Jordan Love struggles, and so the stats he did produce don’t carry any of the drag that we see with Romeo Doubs, for instance. Anyone can have a a solid five games just based on luck, and so we have to be cautious here as it’s true that we’ve barely seen Melton at all.
And if Melton were a potential number one, wouldn’t he have gotten more run? Wouldn’t he have, in fact, dominated more in college, playing at lowly Rutgers, and not fallen to the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft? Good question! Here’s where things get complicated.
Melton’s Doomed College Career
If you just look at Melton’s college stats, covering his five years at Rutgers, there’s nothing particularly special about them, but as is the case with all college stats, context is key. Here, I think exploring a lesson from Melton’s teammate Jayden Reed will be illuminating.
One of the big selling points with Jayden Reed (and probably with Keon Coleman as well) is that their Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne was horrible. Reed’s college production was good, but it probably would have been even more impressive at a school with a better quarterback, and the only reason Reed wound up with Payton Thorne is because they were buddies, having played on the same high school team.
Out of high school, Reed attended Western Michigan but he quickly transferred to Michigan State to be with Thorne. Reed was good, especially in 2021 when he averaged 17.4 yards per catch and gained over 1000 yards, but as a senior both of those numbers tanked to 636 total yards and 11.6 yards per catch. Reed went in the second round, and he’s obviously very talented, but scouts had to parse that 600-yard senior season to see through the noise. Ultimately it worked out for him, but playing with a quarterback of Thorne’s quality was a risk for a receiver.
Melton was a four star recruit with offers from Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and several other major programs, but he wound up at Rutgers largely because he grew up in Mays Landing, New Jersey, and his father Gary and mother Vicky played football and basketball there, respectively. And so, familiarity led Melton to commit to what can only be described as an atrocious football program — one of the worst of its era. How bad?
As a true sophomore Melton actually made a significant dent in the starting lineup, finishing second on the team in receptions with 28 to Raheem Blackshear’s 44. I should mention at this point in the story that Blackshear is a running back, and that this team also featured running back Isiah Pacheco, now of the Chiefs. Rutgers was coached by Chris Ash, who took over the program in 2016 and went 2-10 in his first season. In Bo’s sophomore campaign Rutgers somehow got worse, going 1-11 and averaging 12.5 points per game, dead last in D-1.
Despite having Pacheco and Melton, Rutgers could never establish any kind of offense largely because quarterback Artur Sitkowski was almost unfathomably bad. In his 11 games as the starter, Sitkowski completed just under 50% of his passes for 1158 yards, four touchdowns, and (drumroll please) eighteen interceptions. Eighteen.
The following season Sitkowski was mostly benched for Johnny Langan, who managed to break the 50% barrier (50.3%) while matching those four touchdowns and cutting the picks in half from eighteen to just nine. Melton led the team with 30 receptions for 427 yards and two scores. The next best receiver on the team, Isaiah Washington, recorded 18 catches for 272 yards and one score. Rutgers also improved to 2-10.
In the Covid year of 2020 Greg Schiano took over for Ash and Melton had his best season, catching a team-leading 47 passes for 638 yards and six touchdowns, with quarterback Noah Vedral throwing more TDs (9) than picks (8) in a big step forward for the program. The Covid year was all kinds of messed up and trusting any stats from that 9-game season is a dicey proposition, but I think it’s worth noting that Melton’s performance came against a schedule that featured Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and a crazily ranked Indiana squad. Moreover, Rutgers actually put up 42 points on Michigan, 27 on OSU, 38 on MSU, and generally speaking didn’t embarrass themselves on offense. Had Rutgers played in 12 games instead of 9 that season, Melton likely would have had something like 63 catches for 851 yards and 8 scores, a yardage total that would have ranked about 17th that year.
In 2021 Melton took a step back, missing two games, but still leading the team with 55 receptions for 618 yards and three scores. His quarterback was still the absolutely atrocious Noah Vedral, although five different players threw at least five passes for Rutgers that year. Their third-leading receiver was Johnny Langan with 18 catches for 177 yards. You may remember him as the guy who was throwing to Melton as a sophomore.
This is all a long way of saying that Melton, because of the comforts of home and family ties, committed to play for a complete disaster where success was impossible. Keep in mind that Isiah Pacheco was a part of the same disaster, fell to the seventh round, and now has a 4.7 Y/C average as a member of the Chiefs, over 2000 rushing yards, and two Super Bowl rings. If you were going to hide a potential top receiver where no one could find him, it may very well be as a part of Chris Ash’s Rutgers’ team, followed by two Covid seasons that were, under the surface, not too shabby at all. Now, back to the present.
The Here and Now
Like Pacheco, Melton fell to the seventh round. Unlike Pacheco, he did not catch on with his initial team, the Seattle Seahawks, but the Packers were interested enough to kick the tires and signed him off Seattle’s practice squad late in 2022. He then spent the 2023 offseason in Green Bay, starting the regular season on the Packers’ practice squad. Melton was activated for the Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions, playing exclusively on special teams, and a few weeks later, against Tampa, he found himself in the game, catching one ball for seven yards. (That catch picked up a first down. Reed would score three plays later).
The following week he would catch four of six targets for 44 yards against the Panthers. And then, on New Years’ Eve, he would have his breakout game, leading all Packer receivers with nine targets, six catches, 105 yards, and a 9-yard score. It was the first 100-yard receiving game of the year by any Packers player.
Melton took a bit of a back seat to the normal starters in the playoffs, but I can’t help wondering if that was a mistake. I’m not sure that Christian Watson was really all the way back against the 49ers, and even though Watson and Wicks out-snapped Melton, he outperformed both of them, catching his only target for one of Jordan Love’s two touchdown passes (the play after drawing a key 40-yard pass interference penalty on 3rd-and-long) and giving Green Bay a brief 13-7 lead.
The Melton sample is limited, but the results were great. His 18.42 DVOA was first on the team, and 13th in the NFL just behind Justin Jefferson. DVOA’s counting stat cousin is DYAR, which credits efficient play AND volume, and while Melton’s 63 was lowest among the five receivers, it was within spitting distance of Romeo Doubs (70) and Christian Watson (81). Melton was second on the team to Jayden Reed in EPA per Target (.446 v. .508), led the team in Yards per Route Run (2.87, where anything approaching 3 is phenomenal), and had the team’s top PFF receiving grade (82.6, with Wicks second at 77.0). Melton was adept playing outside as well as in the slot, and his separation numbers rival Wicks’.
Moreover, Melton isn’t some Rudy-style try-hard without any physical gifts. The only receiver on the team with better tools is Christian Watson. Melton has the second highest RAS, the second fastest 40, and the second fastest 3-cone, all to Watson. Jayden Reed is incredibly fast for a slot receiver, ripping off a 4.45. But…
And this is not a rip on Reed, who was incredibly productive as a rookie and put that speed to good use! It’s just that Melton is something else.
Melton the Fifth
And so, Bo Melton enters camp as the fifth receiver, but goodness, they really may have something here. While it’s true that efficiency doesn’t always scale up with volume, Melton has a lot of slack to work with. 13 of his 16 catches went for first downs, his athletic ability is off-the-charts good, and unlike some small receivers, he can be effective outside where he played 66% of his snaps. This wouldn’t be the first time the Packers struck gold with a former seventh round pick. Donald Driver battled his way from virtual unknown to one of the most beloved players in franchise history. Don’t be too shocked if Melton manages to pull off something similar.
