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By AtoZ SPORTS
Wendell Ferreira
Latest playoff update shows what the Packers are fighting for over the last four weeks of the season
The Green Bay Packers’ loss to the Detroit Lions didn’t affect the team’s chances of getting to the playoffs that much. According to The New York Times’ projections, the Packers now have a 98% chance, down from 99% last week. If the Packers go 1-3 over the last four weeks of the regular season, the chances are around 80% to 90%. Even if Green Bay loses out, there would still be a 23% chance of going to the postseason anyway.
With games against the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears left, it’s unimaginable that the Packers will miss the playoffs. The NFC North is out of reach, so there’s not much to fight for over the last four games.
What they need
The Packers’ first goal, obviously, is to secure the playoff spot. But beyond that, the biggest fight over the final month of the season is to make sure they don’t lose the sixth seed to the Washington Commanders.
Being fifth or sixth in the NFC won’t be a big difference, but moving down to the seventh seed would be hugely negative for the Packers.
And that’s because being fifth or sixth, the Packers will face the Champion of the South or West in the wild card round — Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks are ahead, with the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals right behind them.
Going down to the seventh seed, though, would mean an early matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles or Detroit Lions, whoever ends up with the second seed.
Last year, the Packers finished as seventh seed and beat the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs, but it’s certainly a scenario they would like to avoid in 2024 — the 2023 Packers are the only seventh seed to win a playoff game since the postseason was expanded in 2020.
Packers vs Commanders
Right now, the Packers are 9-4 and the Commanders are 8-5. As aforementioned, Green Bay plays the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears.
Washington plays the New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, and Dallas Cowboys.
If both the Packers and Commanders finish with the same record, Washington will have the tie-breaking advantage based on its conference record.
This means that, over the last four weeks of the regular season, the Packers must keep at least the same record as the Commanders to keep the sixth seed.
The Packers can still take the fifth seed out of the Minnesota Vikings, but that seems unlikely (and not that important) at this point.
Playoff chances in the NFC (teams with more than 1%)
- Detroit Lions 100%
- Philadelphia Eagles >99%
- Minnesota Vikings >99% (92% via WC)
- Green Bay Packers 98% (98% via WC)
- Washington Commanders 85% (84% via WC)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 68% (6% via WC)
- Arizona Cardinals 42% (1% via WC)
- Atlanta Falcons 41% (3% via WC)
- Seattle Seahawks 34% (3% via WC)
- Los Angeles Rams 28% (1% via WC)
- San Francisco 49ers 2% (0% via WC)