Packers playoff scenarios: NFC standings, tiebreaker with Commanders, game next week

cbarto66 | 12/30/2024

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By Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Christopher Kuhagen

Packers playoff scenarios: NFC standings, tiebreaker with Commanders, game next week

The Green Bay Packers won’t go into their Week 18 game against the Chicago Bears needing a win to get into the playoffs like they did last year.

The Packers (11-5) already have secured their spot in the playoffs.

But Sunday’s 27-25 loss to the Minnesota Vikings was costly on a couple fronts for their playoff positioning. It officially ended their chances of earning the fifth seed in the NFC postseason. And it also dropped them to the seventh seed in the playoff picture by the end of the night.

Meanwhile, the win for the Vikings (14-2) sets up a winner-take-all matchup in their Week 18 matchup against the Detroit Lions (13-2) on Sunday night. The winner will claim the NFC North championship, the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and a bye in the first round. The loser will be the fifth seed and have to go on the road in the playoffs.

Here’s the latest on the Packers’ playoff scenarios, current NFC North standings and what’s ahead.

Packers playoff picture, scenarios

The NFC and the Packers’ playoff picture is coming into clearer focus after Sunday’s Week 17 games. The Packers will be either the sixth or seventh seed in the 2024 NFC playoffs.

However, following the Packers loss on Sunday and the Washington Commanders’ overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay no longer has control over the sixth seed, a position it has held onto for the last several weeks.

The sixth seed now belongs to the Commanders (11-5), who not only clinched a playoff spot with the dramatic victory but they vaulted the Packers in the standings.

The Packers are now seeded seventh.

Commanders-Packers tiebreaker

While both the Packers and Commanders are 11-5, Washington has the tiebreaker over the Packers based on best win percentage in conference games and will be the sixth seed if they finish tied. The two teams did not play each other this season so there is no head-to-head tiebreaker.

That means the Packers will only be the sixth seed if they defeat the Bears in Week 18 to finish 12-5 and the Commanders lose to the Dallas Cowboys to finish 11-6.

If they both finish with the same record, the Commanders are the sixth seed.

The Packers and Commanders’ games are both set for noon Sunday.

Who will the Packers play in the playoffs?

As the seventh seed, the Packers would go on the road in the wild-card round to face the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles, a team they lost to in Week 1 in Brazil.

As the sixth seed, the Packers would face the third seed in the opening round. The NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams are currently in that spot, though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could also still end up as that seed based on next week’s results.

NFC playoff picture 2024

Here’s a look at the current NFC standings with one game remaining in Week 17. The Detroit Lions play on Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers, though the result of that game won’t change the implications for next week. Seeds 1-4 are division leaders and 5-7 are wild-card teams.

Minnesota Vikings (14-2), play at the Detroit Lions in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed at stake, the loser is the No. 5 seed
Philadelphia Eagles (13-3), No. 2 seed secured, NFC East champions and wrap up the regular season against the New York Giants in Week 18
Los Angeles Rams (10-6), NFC West champions, play the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18, a win clinches the No. 3 seed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7), host the New Orleans Saints in Week 18, a win clinches the NFC South and the No. 4 seed
Detroit Lions (13-2), host the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 with the NFC North title and No. 1 seed at stake, the loser is the No. 5 seed
Washington Commanders (11-5), play at the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18, a win clinches the sixth seed
Green Bay Packers (11-5), host the Chicago Bears in Week 18, a win and a Commanders loss clinches the sixth seed

In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8), play host to the Carolina Panthers, need a victory and a Buccaneers loss to win the division and the No. 4 seed

NFC North standings

Minnesota Vikings: 14-2, beat the Packers 27-25 on Sunday
Detroit Lions: 13-2, play at the 49ers on Monday night
Green Bay Packers: 11-5, lost at the Vikings 27-25 on Sunday
Chicago Bears: 4-12, lost to the Seahawks on Thursday night

Packers Bears game time in Week 18

The Packers will look to rebound from Sunday’s loss in their regular season finale at home against the Chicago Bears. Kickoff is set for noon Sunday, Jan. 5.

The good news for the Packers is that they don’t lose against the Bears and Chicago hasn’t won a game since Oct. 13. The Packers have an 11-game winning streak over the Bears, dating to the 2019 season.

In fact, Matt LaFleur has never lost to the Bears as coach of the Packers.

The Bears have lost their past 10 games. One of the losses came to the Packers, who blocked a field goal on the final play of the game to escape with a 20-19 win.

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-William D Lorge, Representative to the Wisconsin State Assembly