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By AtoZ SPORTS
Wendell Ferreira
5 bold predictions for the Packers in the second half of the 2024 season
The Green Bay Packers were 3-6 after nine games last season. Eventually, the team grew together, finishing the year with a 6-2 stretch, and the 9-8 record was enough to get them to the playoffs. Now, the situation is certainly more comfortable at 6-3.
But there is still room to grow, and the Packers still are the youngest team in football. If they can take a similar step forward, there’s an argument to be made that Green Bay has one of the highest ceilings in the NFL.
“We want to grow together,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said last week. “I’m excited to see what they can do in the second half (of the season).”
Below, let’s discuss some potential scenarios for the next eight games, and how it can impact the outcome of the Packers’ season.
Josh Jacobs will reach 1,800 scrimmage yards
Right now, running back Josh Jacobs has 762 rushing yards and 128 receiving yards. He’s on pace for 1,681 scrimmage yards, which would already be the highest number for a Packers player since 2003. That being said, Green Bay has some easier games coming up, and presumably they can run the ball more to finish them — especially if Jordan Love stays healthy and reduces the unsustainably high number of turnovers. In this case, Jacobs could become the third player in Packers franchise history with a 1,800-scrimmage yard season, after Ahman Green (2001, 2003) and Dorsey Levens (1997).
That doesn’t sound bad, does it?
Jayden Reed, the first since Davante Adams
In 2021, Davante Adams had an absurd amount of yards, 1,553 — the highest of his career. That was his last year in Green Bay, and the last time a Packers player reached 1,000 receiving yards in a season. That might very well happen again in 2024, though.
In 2022, Allen Lazard led the team with 788 receiving yards, and last year, Jayden Reed did it with 793 yards. This season, Reed is on pace for 1,171 receiving yards.
Sure enough, it’s hard to predict Reed’s final numbers because he has some monster games (138 against the Philadelphia Eagles, 139 against the Minnesota Vikings, 113 against the Detroit Lions) and some weak performances (9 against the Indianapolis Colts, 10 against the Houston Texans, 28 against the Arizona Cardinals). His role is pretty much matchup-based, and that naturally creates some variance.
But Reed is explosive enough and has enough ability to create after the catch to be the first player since Davante Adams with a 1,100-receiving yard season for the Packers.
Xavier McKinney will get to 10 INTs
Just once in Packers history a player reached 10 interceptions in a season. That was Irv Comp, in 1943. Several got nine, including Darren Sharper in 2000 and Charles Woodson in 2009. This year, though, safety Xavier McKinney can realistically break that wild mark.
Right now, he is on pace for 11.3 interceptions, which would be a franchise record. It’s hard to keep that pace because he started the season with five interceptions in five games, and had only one over the last four — mostly because opposing quarterbacks are avoiding him. But the Packers have eight games to go, and McKinney would need one pick every two games to get there.
Based on how well he has played, it’s certainly not impossible.
Edge rusher 2
Through the first nine games of the season, Kingsley Enagbare played 42.78% of the Packers’ defensive snaps, against 41.02% for Lukas Van Ness. While there is a perception that Van Ness will be the starter after Preston Smith got traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the most likely scenario is that the former fifth-rounder will have the nod alongside Rashan Gary.
On Tuesday, hours after trading Smith, Brian Gutekunst let that intention somewhat clear, citing Enagbare by name (or nickname).
“For that entire group, we need more from those guys as we move forward into the second half of the season,” Gutekunst said. “As the last few games, the snaps have gone towards what they’re gonna be probably, with JJ (Kingsley Enagbare) and those guys. I like that group, I like the way they work. They have to continue to keep pushing and some guys getting more snaps will help them.”
More than the snaps, Enagbare has also been the more productive option. He has needed 13.4 pass rush snaps to generate a pressure, while Van Ness needs 23.5. Enagbare is lighter, which seems to be a better fit for what defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has run, and he will finish the season as the second starting edge.
Malik Willis will start again, but for a good reason
The Packers are very likely to make the playoffs. Ten wins will most likely get them there — maybe even nine, but 10 is the magic number. Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, only the 2020 Miami Dolphins missed the postseason with double-digit wins. Most of the time, some teams with nine wins make it, just like the Packers in 2023.
Right now, Green Bay has six wins. That means they need four more to basically secure a playoff spot.
If the Packers beat the Chicago Bears, the Miami Dolphins, the Seattle Seahawks, and the New Orleans Saints, they would get there by Week 16. That scenario includes losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions. And it doesn’t count the Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings.
It all means that the Packers have a really solid chance of getting to Week 18 with a playoff spot in their hands. At the same time, the Lions are 1.5 games ahead of the Packers, and they would be 2 or 3 ahead if they win their second head-to-head matchup in Week 14 — plus the tie-breaking advantage.
The Packers can certainly get to the last week of the regular season with a secured wild card spot, and at the same time with no shot to win the division. At that point, it would be smart to sit their starters in Week 18 against the Chicago Bears.
Playing the backups is rough when the team has a bye week in the playoffs, because that creates a three-week period without games for the players. But when there’s no playoff rest, sitting the most important players in a meaningless Week 18 game makes all the sense in the world.
So Malik Willis, who has started two games (and played the second half of another) this season because of a Jordan Love injury, could play again — but for a much more positive reason.
